Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Obama "clinging" to a 14 point lead among hunters

From Glenn Thrush in Politico:
According to a Congressional Sportsmen’s Foundation poll to be released Wednesday, John McCain leads Obama by a 45 to 31 percent. That’s only about half the 27-point edge respondents say they gave George W. Bush over Kerry four years ago and far short of the 65-to-15 percent margin gun owners gave to Bush over Gore in 2000.
What gives? Isn't Obama the guy who thinks central Pennsylvanians "cling" to guns? The explanation from the foundation that sponsored the poll:
I don’t think John McCain has really made his case to hunters and anglers,” says Melinda Gable, communications director for the foundation, which advocates gun rights and expanded access to federal land for hunters. “Things were very different in 2004. Everybody knew that George W. Bush was from Texas, he was a rancher and that he went hunting. We haven’t seen that from McCain yet—there’s the unknown—he really needs to come out as a sportsman. Neither candidate has talked a lot about the issues that are important to us.
Of course, this is the framing that this particular group would like to place on this data. This would force McCain to focus more on issues that pertain to sportsmen. What really stands out from that data is the drop from a 50 point gap between Bush and Gore to a 27 point gap between Kerry and Bush. This is either the fruits of the hard work the Democratic part has put in to be competitive in rural America. It could also be that post 9-11, hunter and fisherman/person are not as salient to voters as issues of national security or economic stability. What do you think?

HT: Ben Smith


Black Political Analysis said...

Or, perhaps even hunters and anglers realize that those niche issues aren't issues at all this election and will actually decide whom to vote for on bigger picture issues like the economy or Iraq.

Jose Marichal said...

I sure hope that is true!